UK Politics: Rules
- All bets are placed in accordance with our betting rules and terms and conditions.
- All odds are subject to fluctuation and bets placed will be settled at the price at the time the bet was confirmed.
- Single bets only are accepted.
- If the next UK general election is run under a different electoral system, bets placed on this market before the system changed will be void.
Market description: Predict who'll deliver the first budget speech after the given general election.
1. If a given candidate is no longer in a position to deliver the first budget speech, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
2. If an additional candidate delivers the first budget speech, bets placed on existing participants in this market will stand.
3. Single bets only are accepted.
4. Settlement will occur once the budget speech commences.
Market description: Predict whether the length of the Chancellor's budget speech will be over or under the specified period of time.
- Example: If the market is over/under 52 minutes:
- Bets placed on under 52 minutes will be settled on a speech length of up to 51:59.
- Bets placed on over 52 minutes will be settled from 52:00 onwards.
1. Single bets only are accepted.
2. Bets placed will be settled based on the information supplied by the Press Association.
3. If Press Association data isn't available or if there's significant evidence that the Press Association data is incorrect, bets will be settled based upon such reputable alternative information sources which are available to us.
4. Settlement will occur once budget speech has been completed.
Composition of the Next UK Government
Market description: Predict the official composition of the next UK government from:
- Conservative majority
- Labour majority
- UKIP majority
- Liberal Democrats majority
- Conservative minority
- Labour minority
- Conservative - Liberal Democrats coalition
- Labour - Liberal Democrats coalition
- Any coalition involving SNP
- Any coalition involving UKIP
- Any coalition involving Greens
- Any coalition involving DUP
- Labour - Conservative coalition
- Other
1. If a coalition government comprises of two of the major parties (Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrats) along with another party, bets placed on this market nominating only the two major parties will have lost.
- Example: If a coalition consists of Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Greens, bets placed on ‘any coalition involving Greens’ will be the winning selection in this market. Bets placed on Labour - Liberal Democrats coalition will have lost.
2. If the next UK government isn't made up of any of the options listed, the winning selection in this market will be ‘Other’.
3. Single bets only are accepted.
4. If the next UK general election is run under a different electoral system, bets placed on this market before the system changed will be void.
5. Settlement will occur once the composition of the next UK government is declared.
Date of the Next UK General Election
Market description: Predict the month and year in which the next UK general election will take place.
1. All bets will be settled on the selected month and year.
- Example: If the selected date for the next UK general election is May 2019, voting in person must commence between 00:00:01 on 1 May 2019 and 23:59:59 on 31 May 2019 to count.
2. Single bets only are accepted.
3. Settlement will occur once voting for next the general election starts in person.
Individual Politician Specials
1. Bets are accepted on individual politician specials markets on the understanding that a winning outcome is possible in the given market at the time the bet was confirmed.
2. If a subsequent factor, event or change of circumstances (including, but not exclusively, the given politician declining, retiring, standing down, defecting to another political party etc.) means that a winning outcome is no longer possible, bets placed on individual politician specials markets will have lost.
3. If a market is dependent upon a specific timeframe, bets will be settled up to 23:59:59 on the day that the timeframe expires.
- Example: Bets placed on Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by end of 2020 will have won if he becomes Prime Minister by 23:59:59 on 31 December 2020.
4. Bets will have lost if he becomes Prime Minister after 23:59:59 on 31 December 2020.
5. Single bets only are accepted.
Market description: Predict the leader that is voted the best performer in the stated poll on the televised leaders’ debate.
- These rules are also applicable if betting is available on the worst performer.
1. All bets will be settled on the actual number of votes cast in the stated poll for the best performer following the televised debate.
2. If there's a change to the scheduled number of participants in the debate, bets placed on this market will stand.
3. If a participant takes no part in the debate, bets placed on that participant in this market will stand.
4. If an additional participant takes part in the debate at any time, bets placed on existing participants in this market will stand.
5. If the actual number of votes cast in the stated poll for the best performer ends in a tie, dead heat rules will apply in this market.
6. Single bets only are accepted.
7. Settlement will be taken from the actual number of votes cast in the stated poll soon after the event is finished.
8. Adjustments to settlement won't be made for any subsequent changes made by the organisers of the stated poll after the event.
Most Seats at nominated Parliament or National Assembly Election
Market description: Predict which party will win the most seats in the nominated parliament or national assembly election.
1. All bets will be settled on the official number of seats gained by each party in the in the nominated parliament or national assembly election.
2. If there's a tie for most seats by two or more parties, dead heat rules will apply in this market.
3. If the electoral system of a given Parliament or National Assembly election is changed significantly, bets placed before the system changed will be void.
4. Single bets only are accepted.
5. Settlement will occur once the result of the in the nominated parliament or national assembly election is declared.
Most Seats at the UK General Election
Market description: Predict which party will win the most seats in the UK general election.
1. All bets will be settled on the official number of seats gained by each party in the general election.
2. If there's a tie for most seats by two or more parties, dead heat rules will apply in this market.
3. If the Speaker of the House of Commons is seeking re-election, their seat won't count.
4. Single bets only are accepted.
5. If the next UK general election is run under a different electoral system, bets placed on this market before the system changed will be void.
6. Settlement will occur once the result of the general election is declared.
Most Seats at the UK General Election Head-to-Head
Market description: Predict which party will win the most seats in the UK general election from the options listed.
1. All bets will be settled on the official number of seats gained by each party in the general election once all 650 constituencies have declared.
2. If the Speaker of the House of Commons is seeking re-election, their seat won't count.
3. If both parties win an equal number of seats, the winning selection in this market will be a tie/draw.
4. Single bets only are accepted.
5. If the next UK general election is run under a different electoral system, bets placed on this market before the system changed will be void.
6. Settlement will occur once the result of the general election is declared.
Market description: Predict who'll be elected the next Mayor of London.
1. Bets will be settled on the candidate who's publicly announced as the permanent Mayor of London following the outcome of the London Mayoral election.
2. If the publicly announced permanent Mayor of London doesn't formally sign any official documentation, isn't sworn in or doesn't officially take office, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand and bets placed on other candidates will have lost.
3. If a candidate is appointed on an interim or temporary basis prior to a London Mayoral election, bets placed on that candidate in this market won't count.
4. If a candidate takes no part in the Mayor of London election, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
5. If an additional candidate takes part in the Mayor of London election at any time, bets placed on existing candidates in this market will stand.
6. Single bets only are accepted.
Next Mayor of London Party Candidate
Market description: Predict the next Mayor of London election candidate for a given political party.
1. Bets will be settled on the person who's publicly announced as the official party London Mayoral candidate following a ballot, vote or any other selection process.
2. If the publicly announced official party candidate doesn't stand in the London Mayoral election, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand and bets placed on other candidates will have lost.
3. If a candidate takes no part in the selection process for the official party candidate for the Mayor of London election, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
4. If an additional candidate takes part in the selection process for the official party candidate for the Mayor of London election at any time, bets placed on existing candidates in this market will stand.
5. Single bets only are accepted.
Next Mayor of London Winning Party
Market description: Predict the Political Party of the next elected Mayor of London.
1. Bets will be settled on the party of the candidate who's publicly announced as the permanent Mayor of London following the outcome of the London Mayoral election.
2. If the publicly announced permanent Mayor of London doesn't formally sign any official documentation, isn't sworn in or doesn't officially take office, bets placed on that candidate’s party in this market will stand and bets placed on other parties will have lost.
3. If a candidate is appointed on an interim or temporary basis prior to a London Mayoral election, bets placed on that candidate’s party in this market won't count.
4. If a political party takes no part in the Mayor of London election, bets placed on that party in this market will stand.
5. If an additional political party takes part in the Mayor of London election at any time, bets placed on existing parties in this market will stand.
6. If a political party changes their candidate for the Mayor of London election, all prior bets placed on this market will stand.
7. Single bets only are accepted.
Market description: Predict who'll be publicly announced as permanent leader of the given political party.
1. Bets will be settled on the candidate who's publicly announced as the permanent new party leader following the outcome of a leadership vote or any other selection process.
2. If the publicly announced new permanent party leader doesn't formally sign any official documentation, isn't sworn in or doesn't officially take office, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand and bets placed on other candidates will have lost.
3. If a candidate is appointed on an interim or temporary basis prior to a leadership vote or any other selection process, bets placed on that candidate in this market won't count.
4. If a candidate is no longer in a position to stand for leader of the given political party, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
5. If an additional candidate takes part in the party leader selection process at any time, bets placed on existing candidates in this market will stand.
6. Single bets only are accepted.
Market description: Predict who'll be the next UK Prime Minister.
1. Bets will be settled on the candidate who's next publicly announced as the permanent Prime Minister following the outcome of an election, leadership vote or any other selection process.
2. If the next publicly announced Prime Minister doesn't formally take oath, affirm, or doesn't officially take office, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand and bets placed on other candidates will have lost.
3. If a candidate is appointed as Prime Minister on an interim or temporary basis prior to a leadership vote or any other selection process, bets placed on that candidate in this market won't count.
4. If a candidate is no longer in a position to stand for UK Prime Minister, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
5. If an additional candidate enters the betting at any time, bets placed on existing candidates in this market will stand.
6. Single bets only are accepted.
Market description: Predict the range of seats won by a given party in the UK general election.
1. All bets will be settled on the number of parliamentary seats gained by each party in the general election once all 650 constituencies have declared.
2. Single bets only are accepted.
3. If the next UK general election is run under a different electoral system, bets placed on this market before the system changed will be void.
4. Settlement will occur once the result of the general election is declared.
1. Bets are accepted on politics specials markets on the understanding that a winning outcome is possible in the given market at the time the bet was confirmed.
2. If a subsequent factor, event or change of circumstances means that a winning outcome is no longer possible, bets placed on politics specials markets will have lost.
3. If a market is dependent upon a specific timeframe, bets will be settled up to 23:59:59 on the day that the timeframe expires.
- Example: Bets placed on VAT to be raised from 20% in the lifetime of the next Parliament will have won if VAT is raised 23:59:59 on the night before voting commences in person for the next general election.
4. Single bets only are accepted.
Public or Political Appointments
Market description: Predict who'll be publicly announced as appointed to the given public or political role.
1. Bets will be settled on the candidate who's publicly announced as permanently appointed into the given role following a ballot, vote, press release, press conference or any other selection process.
2. If the publicly announced new appointee doesn't formally sign any official documentation, isn't sworn in or doesn't officially take up the role, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand and bets placed on other candidates will have lost.
3. If a candidate is appointed on an interim or temporary basis prior to an official selection process taking place, bets placed on that candidate in this market won't count.
4. If a candidate is no longer in a position to stand for the given public role, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
5. If an additional candidate takes part in the selection process at any time, bets placed on existing candidates in this market will stand.
6. Single bets only are accepted.
Market description: Predict whether or not Scotland will vote for independence by the given date.
1. Bets are settled on whether or not Scotland will officially vote for independence by 23:59:59 on the given date.
- Example: If the given date is the end of 2024, bets placed on this market will be settled from the time the bet was placed until 23:59:59 on 31 December 2024.
2. If Scotland has voted for independence by the given date, but doesn't become an independent country until after the given date, the winning selection in this market will be ‘yes’.
3. If no official independence referendum is held by the given date, the winning selection in this market will be ‘no’.
4. Single bets only are accepted.
5. Settlement will occur once the official result of an official independence referendum is formally declared or the given timeframe has elapsed.
Scottish Independence Referendum
Market description: Predict whether or not Scotland will hold an official independence referendum by the given date.
1. Bets are settled on whether or not Scotland will hold an official independence referendum by 23:59:59 on the given date.
- Example: If the given date is the end of 2024, bets placed on this market will be settled from the time the bet was placed until 23:59:59 on 31 December 2024.
2. If Scotland has planned to hold official independence referendum by the given date, but the referendum doesn't take place until after the given date, the winning selection in this market will be ‘no’.
3. Single bets only are accepted.
4. Settlement will occur once voting in person has commenced in an official independence referendum or the given timeframe has elapsed.
Market description: Predict the result of a given UK by-election.
1. Bets will be settled on a named party or individual who's elected as the member of Parliament for the given constituency in the given by-election.
2. If a candidate takes no part in the given by-election, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
3. If an additional candidate takes part in the given by-election at any time, bets placed on existing candidates in this market will stand.
4. If a given candidate defects to another political party, bets placed on this market before the candidate defected will be void.
5. Single bets only are accepted.
6. Settlement will occur once a winning candidate is declared for the given by-election.
UK General Election Constituency Result
Market description: Predict the result of a given constituency in the UK general election.
1. Bets will be settled on a named party or individual who's elected as the member of Parliament for the given constituency in the general election.
2. If a candidate takes no part in the general election for the given constituency, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
3. If an additional candidate takes part in the general election for the given constituency at any time, bets placed on existing candidates in this market will stand.
4. If a given candidate defects to another political party, bets placed on this market before the candidate defected will be void.
5. Single bets only are accepted.
6. If the next UK general election is run under a different electoral system, bets placed on this market before the system changed will be void.
7. Settlement will occur once a winning candidate is declared for the given constituency.
Market description: Predict the result of the UK general election from:
- No overall majority
- Conservative majority
- Labour majority
- UKIP majority
- Liberal Democrat majority
1. Bets will be settled on a named party to win an overall majority, i.e. to win more than half of the parliamentary seats, or no overall majority.
2. Single bets only are accepted.
3. If the next UK general election is run under a different electoral system, bets placed on this market before the system changed will be void.
4. Settlement will occur once the result of the general election is declared.
UK General Election Voter Turnout
Market description: Predict the voter turnout in the UK general election from:
- 55% and under
- Over 55% - 60%
- Over 60% - 65%
- Over 65% - 70%
- Over 70%-75%
- Over 75%
Where:
- 55% and under means exactly 55% or fewer
- Over 55% - 60% means 55.01% to exactly 60.00%
- Over 60% to 65% means 60.01% to exactly 65.00%
1. All bets will be settled on the official voter turnout for the general election.
2. Single bets only are accepted.
3. Settlement will occur once the official voter turnout data is released by the Electoral Commission.
4. Adjustments to settlement won't be made for any subsequent changes made by the Electoral Commission after the event.
Who'll be UK Prime Minister on Date?
Market description: Predict who'll be the UK Prime Minister on the given date.
1. Bets are settled on who'll be the UK Prime Minister at 00:00:01 on the given date.
- Example: If the given date is 1 August 2015, bets placed on this market will be settled on who holds the position of UK Prime Minister at 00:00:01 on 1 August 2015.
2. If a given candidate is no longer in a position to stand for UK Prime Minister, bets placed on that candidate in this market will stand.
3. If an additional candidate enters the betting at any time, bets placed on existing candidates in this market will stand.
4. If the UK Prime Minister on the given date isn't listed, the winning selection in this market will be ‘any other’.
5. Single bets only are accepted.
6. Settlement will occur on the date given.
Will 16 or 17 year olds be allowed to vote in UK General Elections?
Market description: Predict whether or not 16 or 17 year olds will be allowed to vote in UK general elections by the given date.
1. Bets are settled on whether or not 16 or 17 year olds will be allowed to vote in UK general elections by 23:59:59 on the given date.
- Example: If the given date is by the end of 2024, bets placed on this market will be settled from the time the bet was placed until 23:59:59 on 31 December 2024.
2. If legislation has been passed to allow 16 or 17 year olds to vote in UK general elections by the given date, but a UK general election in which 16 or 17 year olds can vote has not yet taken place, the winning selection in this market will be ‘yes’.
3. Single bets only are accepted.
Market description: Predict who'll be the next Cabinet member to leave.
1. Bets will be settled on the next Cabinet member of the incumbent government to leave their position as officially announced by the UK Government.
2. Cabinet Ministers are defined as per the listed MP’s (Members of Parliament) at https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers.
3. People who attend cabinet meetings aren't considered for betting purposes.
4. If more than one Cabinet Minister leaves office on the same calendar day, then for betting purposes dead heat rules will apply.
5. Only Single bets will be accepted on this market.